AL West: The Oakland Pitching Factory

Baseball Betting Lines

05/25/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Year after year, the Oakland Athletics have churned out solid young pitchers from their farm system in assembly-line fashion.

This year has been no different, as Oakland's pitching staff ranks third in the American League with a combined 3.92 ERA. The starting rotation boasts an average age of 26.7 years, which is the youngest in the majors. Dallas Braden, owner of a perfect game already this season, is the second-oldest pitcher in the rotation, at just 26.

"You look in the winter at all the top-notch pitching free agents and see how few real top-notch guys are available." manager Bob Geren said in a recent interview with the team's Web site. "To be able to grow your own and see them blossom into that style of pitching is a credit to numerous people."

That development begins at the lower levels of Oakland's minor league system, where the coaches emphasize preparing the pitching prospects with the tools, and mindset, needed to make it to The Show. Once there, A's pitching coach Curt Young takes the reins and further fine-tunes those skills, closely monitoring each pitcher's progression.

Young is in his seventh season as Oakland's pitching coach. Over the past six seasons under his tutelage, the A's pitching staff has allowed the fewest home runs in the American League (909), has the lowest opponent batting average (.259) and ranks second in ERA (4.10).

Prized free agent acquisition Ben Sheets (31) saw his Oakland tenure get off to a rocky start, and things came to a head during a two-game stretch a few weeks ago when he allowed a combined 17 runs.

On Sunday, Sheets baffled the Bay Area-rival San Francisco Giants by allowing just two hits in six innings, striking out eight along the way. It marked the second straight shutout of the Giants, after 24-year-old Gio Gonzalez tossed eight scoreless innings in Saturday's 1-0 victory.

All told, A's pitchers held the Giants to just one run in sweeping the three- game series over the weekend. San Francisco was held scoreless for the final 20 innings of the series.

Since giving up those 17 runs, Sheets has allowed a total of seven runs over his last four starts, to which he credits an adjustment with his arm angle. Manager Bob Geren also pointed to Sheets developing his cut fastball and relying on his changeup more frequently. While the numbers certainly suggest the veteran right-hander has turned a corner, Sheets said he is only now starting to feel more at ease on the mound, which is evident by his increased velocity.

"I'm just feeling a lot better from start to start," he told the Oakland Tribune. "When I look back at month to month to month, I can really tell a big difference. The more you do something, the more comfortable you feel at it. It feels good, because I think I'm starting to settle in."

Thanks to Sheets and the rest of the pitching staff, the A's have won three straight to move above .500 (23-22), as they trail the division-leading Texas Rangers by just two games. Now, the A's pitchers look to keep dealing as the team embarks on a 10-game road trip through Baltimore, Detroit and Boston.

RANGERS SHUFFLE STARTING ROTATION

Rangers' manager Ron Washington has been searching for another lefty bullpen option to go along with Darren Oliver. It appears the search has ultimately landed on starter Matt Harrison, who learned he will join the bullpen upon his return from the disabled list.

Harrison, who has not made a relief appearance since 2006, began a rehab assignment in Double-A on Monday. Barring any setbacks, he could join the team in his new role as early as Friday in Minnesota. In six starts for the Rangers this season, Harrison went 1-1 with a 5.29 ERA before being shutdown with left biceps tendinitis.

"I really don't know what to expect," he told the Star-Telegram. "I talked to (Dustin) Nippert. He said it's different because every time the phone rings down there, your adrenalin gets going. It's something I'm going to have to experience firsthand, and hopefully the minor league games will help."

In other pitching news, Washington announced over the weekend that he had switched C.J. Wilson and Derek Holland in the rotation. Wilson will now pitch Saturday against the Twins, while Holland will pitch Sunday, giving him seven days off between starts. The team has two open dates this week, which opened the possibility for such a move.

After winning the first five games of their seven-game homestand, the Rangers lost consecutive games this weekend against the Chicago Cubs by identical 5-4 finals. Thus far the road has not been very kind to the Rangers, who are 18-9 at home but just 7-11 elsewhere.

PROBLEMS AT THE TOP FOR SEATTLE

The box scores show that Seattle managed just two runs over the final 22 innings of this weekend's series with the San Diego Padres. And with that, the Mariners are now just 5-16 in May and have not won a series all month long.

Chone Figgins was acquired in the offseason with the hope that he'd team up with leadoff man Ichiro Suzuki to give Seattle a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup. However, that plan hasn't quite worked out, which is just one of the many reasons Seattle (16-28) now has the second-worst record in the American League.

According to the team's Web site, Suzuki and Figgins have both reached base only 17 percent of the innings which they've batted consecutively. Of course, it's tough to fault Suzuki, who is hitting .348 and has 22 multi-hit games. Figgins, a former leadoff man with the Angels, is hitting just .195 with a team-high 42 strikeouts in the No. 2 hole.

Although Figgins doesn't blame his struggles on his new home in the lineup, one can't help but correlate the two. After all, he is a career .291 hitter and is coming off an All-Star nod last season -- which is why the team gave him $36 million over four years. Still, despite the team's well-documented offensive struggles, Figgins isn't putting any added pressure on himself. What's more, he evens claims he's been swinging the bat better lately.

"My mind-set never changes no matter where I am (in the order)," Figgins told the Seattle Times. "I think times like this show you what you're made of. I'm not the kind of guy that's going to give in. I'll never give in. I'm going to go out and keep playing.

"That's who I am. I've always been like that. Stuff never comes easy. If you can realize that and battle through the hard times you can get rewarded."

ANGELS MISSING SOME FORMER STARS

The early polls are in for the 2010 All-Star ballots, and so far the results should be of particular interest to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Among the leading vote-getters at their respective positions are the Rangers' Vladimir Guerrero and the Yankees' Mark Teixeira, two key figures of the Angels' not-so-distant past.

Teixeira, who hit .358 and had a .632 slugging percentage in 54 games with the Angels in 2008, is the leading vote-getter at first base thus far, nearly 138,000 votes ahead of Minnesota's Justin Morneau.

Guerrero, an eight-time All-Star with the Halos, has rebounded from his knee problems to hit .339 with 10 homers and 37 RBI in his first year as the Rangers' designated hitter. He leads the voting at DH with 374,333 tallies. Ironically, the Angels' new DH, Hideki Matsui, ranks second with 298,487 votes.

However, Matsui's votes can be credited more so to his reputation than to his production thus far. He was hitting just .161 in the Month of May entering Monday's series opener against the Toronto Blue Jays. With Toronto left-hander Brett Cecil on the hill for that game, Angels' manager Mike Scioscia dropped Matsui to seventh in the lineup. That change, it appears, will remain in place until Matsui picks things up at the plate.

"Against lefties right now, we want to keep Juan (Rivera) behind Kendry (Morales) so Hideki will hit behind Juan against lefties, and most likely hit higher against righties," Scioscia said. "I talked to Hideki (Monday), and I think when he starts swinging it, we'll get him in the middle of the lineup. Right now he's searching, and so against lefties we'll go with this lineup."

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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