76ers, Heat square off in South Beach

Basketball Betting Lines

02/21/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eastern Conference rivals meet in South Beach Saturday afternoon when the Philadelphia 76ers kick off a four-game road trip against the Miami Heat.

The Sixers dropped their second straight game since the All-Star break on Wednesday when Carmelo Anthony had 26 points and 14 rebounds as the Denver Nuggets continued a successful run on the road with a 101-89 victory over Philadelphia at the Wachovia Center.

Andre Miller paced Philadelphia with 17 points but left in the third quarter with a right calf strain and did not return.

Lou Williams contributed 15 points off the bench, while Thaddeus Young and Samuel Dalembert each had 12 points in the loss, the Sixers' second in a row following a four-game win streak.

Andre Iguodala was just 1-of-6 from the field for 10 points in 27-plus minutes and fouled out for the first time this season.

Miller is listed as questionable after an MRI exam Thursday confirmed he suffered a right calf strain. The 32-year-old Utah product, who is averaging a team-best 6.4 assists and 15.8 points this season, has played in 501 consecutive games, the NBA's longest active streak.

Philadelphia will also visit New Jersey, Washington and New York on its trek.

The Heat, meanwhile, opened a short two-game homestand in losing fashion on Wednesday after Sebastian Telfair made six of Minnesota's 14 three-pointers and finished with a career-high 30 points, as the Timberwolves topped Miami, 111-104.

Dwyane Wade had 37 points and 12 assists, while Udonis Haslem added 17 points for the Heat, who fell to 17-10 as the host this season. Miami center Jermaine O'Neal made his debut with the team after being acquired from Toronto over the All-Star break, along with forward Jamario Moon.

O'Neal ended with 13 points, but his introduction wasn't enough for the Heat to post their second consecutive win, as they beat Chicago on February 12. Miami hasn't won back-to-back games since a three-game streak from January 24-28. O'Neal (eye) and Wade (flu) are probable versus the 76ers, while James Jones (wrist/hand) is listed as questionable.

The Heat and Sixers have split a pair of games this season with Philadelphia winning the most recent encounter, 94-84, on February 7 in the City of Brotherly Love. Overall, Philly has taken six of its past seven meetings with Miami but was routed in South Beach, 106-83, early this season.

Wmarketwatch Basketball Betting News

<< Blackhawks aiming for history-making win over Stars
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Blackhawks will try for their first season series sweep of the Dallas Stars in franchise history when the two teams clash this afternoon at American Airlines Center. Chicago has won all three of its meetings wi

<< Penguins hoping to end road woes in Philadelphia
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been over five weeks since the Pittsburgh Penguins posted a road victory. That win, coincidentally, came in Philadelphia. Having given their new head coach his first taste of triumph, the Penguins try to snap a five

<< Tevez admits frustration at United
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester United striker Carlos Tevez is still unsure whether he will be at Old Trafford next season. The Argentina international is currently on a two-year loan deal with Sir Alex Ferguson's side bu

<< Keane blames Short for Sunderland exit
Sunderland, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roy Keane has blamed American investor Ellis Short for his decision to leave Sunderland. The former Manchester United captain had guided the Black Cats to promotion to the Premier League in his first

<< Milan will not raise price for Beckham
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - AC Milan vice-president Adriano Galliani is adamant that the Rossoneri will not offer LA Galaxy any more money for England international David Beckham. The MLS side insist that Beckham will return to Los

Spurs conclude road trip against Wizards >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Southwest Division-leading San Antonio Spurs will wrap up a lengthy eight-game road trip tonight against the Washington Wizards at the Verizon Center. The Spurs are 4-3 on the trek and ended a two-game slide with a

Kings try to halt losing streak in Dallas >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The lowly Sacramento Kings will try to end a 10-game road losing streak to the Dallas Mavericks when the two teams collide this evening at American Airlines Center. Sacramento hasn't won in Dallas since a 110-109 vict

Emotional Jazz welcome Hornets to town >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hearts will be heavy in Salt Lake City tonight, when the host Utah Jazz resume a five-game homestand versus the New Orleans Hornets at EnergySolutions Arena. On Friday, longtime Jazz owner Larry Miller succumbed to

Thunder pay a visit to Golden State >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oklahoma City Thunder will try to stop a six-game road losing streak Saturday when they close out a short trek against the Golden State Warriors at ORACLE Arena. The Thunder opened the two-game road swing with a

LSU hosts Auburn in pivotal SEC contest >>
Baton Rouge, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 23rd-ranked LSU Tigers are set to host SEC foe Auburn, which enters this contest riding a four-game win streak. The recent success has lifted Auburn to 17-9 overall and 6-5 in conference. Auburn knocked

How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your college football betting needs.